It’s a tradition here to write about what scares us around Halloween each year. The past few yearshave offered plenty of material to use in these annual commentaries, but with wars in Israel andUkraine ongoing, Washington, D.C. dysfunction reaching new heights, the unrelenting rise in interestrates, still-high inflation, unaffordable housing, tight financial conditions, and a Federal Reserve (Fed)that has not yet signaled it’s done hiking rates, the list seems to be a bit longer and scarier than itusually is. But these are risk factors, not our base case. Keep in mind there are plenty of positives atthe same time, including easing inflation, the resilient economy bolstered by a healthy job market,growing earnings, and the strong possibility that the Fed is done hiking rates.

Click here to download PDF